Prices Are Rising, Is Anybody Buying?

The mean sale price rose most in Rochester, NY last year, rising 10.4% year over year. Then the Hartford, CT (9.2%), Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN (8.1%), Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI (7.8%), and San Diego-Carlsbad, CA (7.1%) metro areas rounded out the 5 metro areas seeing the largest price increases in the country.

Meanwhile, mean home sale prices fell the most, year over year, in Austin, TX dropping 7.5%. This was followed by San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA  (-1.4%), Cleveland-Elyria, OH (-0.8%), San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX (-0.5%), and Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI (-0.1%).

While prices rose in the vast majority of metro areas in the US, only the Austin, TX metro area saw an increase in the number of homes sold per capita compared to the previous year. Austin, TX, noted above for its falling home prices, increased the number of homes sold year over year by 30.3%.

With that said, sales have surged since the start of the year. Many of the metros we observed, Austin especially, saw a positive growth rate in sale counts at the beginning of 2024, following decreased home sales during 2022 and 2023. 

The Saint Louis Fed, sourcing data from Freddie Mac, has observed sharp increases in interest rates over the past two years, which strongly correlates with the decline in home sales Kukun has observed across that same time period. “The higher interest rates affect the wealthiest home buyers least” observed John Schuler, Senior Economist at Kukun“and change the composition of the market in ways that are difficult to predict.”

Schuler noted: “The consequences of the work-from-home revolution are still being worked out; the thing to watch will be the census’s net migration numbers.” These migration numbers will help inform the causes of supply and demand shifts, which in turn will explain changes in price and home sales volume.

It’s Not All Sunshine in Florida

Florida is a popular destination for homebuyers. Jacksonville, Florida ranked highest in the country for home sales per capita, with 18.7 homes sold per 1,000 residents over the year. 

While we observed earlier that only Austin, TX managed to not drop in sales from the previous year, Florida metros fell among the least, with Miami, FL (-1.5%), Tampa, FL (-7.0%), and Orlando, FL (-7.3%) are all within the top 10 for change in sales per capita.

Florida has seen a sharp increase in supply over the past year, which could be related to the price stability and high sales per capita. 

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California’s Struggles With Sales

Five California metros rank in the bottom ten for lowest sales per capita. Sacramento’s per capita sales fell 48.5% from the previous year, and San Jose is not far behind, having fallen 30.5% from last year. Four of the five most expensive metros in the US are in California, and these high prices and low inventory are contributing to some of the lowest home sales in the country per capita. San Francisco’s 21.5% per capita decline in sales has been accompanied by a 1.4% reduction in sale price over the year, the only metro area in California to see a reduction in mean sale price. Recent months have seen a slight increase in San Francisco’s sale prices.

Methodology

This report covers the top 50 most populous metropolitan areas in the US. Mean sale prices are averaged over a one-year period from April 2023 to April 2024. Year-over-year comparisons compare to an averaged one-year period from April 2022 to April 2023. Population statistics come from the 2021 American Community Survey. Per capita metrics are for every 1,000 residents.

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Cameron Simons

Cameron Simons is an accomplished data analyst with expertise in transportation safety and housing market analysis. Cameron earned his Master's in Data Analytics and his BS in economics with a minor in urban planning from San Jose State University. Cameron started his career at Trulia, analyzing housing market trends, and has since contributed significantly at Vega Economics, where he used R and other statistical programming tools to assist in financial litigation, and the City of San José, where he worked as a transportation engineer. Currently, as an Economist at Kukun, he develops advanced home price valuation models and produces housing market reporting and analysis.

Published May 31, 2024